Regression to the mean

Regression to the Mean is a statistical concept that refers to the phenomenon where extreme data points are likely to be followed by less extreme ones. This concept is often misunderstood and misinterpreted in various fields, including psychology, medicine, and sports.

Overview[edit | edit source]

Regression to the Mean was first identified by Sir Francis Galton in the late 19th century. He observed that extreme characteristics in parents (such as height) did not tend to be passed on completely to their offspring. Instead, the characteristics in the offspring regressed towards the average for the population.

The concept of regression to the mean is based on the statistical principle that, in any series of random data, extreme points are likely to be followed by more moderate ones. This is because the extreme points are likely to have been caused, at least in part, by random variation, which is not likely to be repeated.

Misinterpretations and Misuse[edit | edit source]

Despite its widespread acceptance in the statistical community, regression to the mean is often misunderstood and misused in other fields. For example, in medicine, it can lead to the mistaken belief that a treatment is effective when it is not. This is because patients with extreme symptoms are likely to regress towards the mean even without treatment.

Similarly, in sports, a player who has an outstanding season is often expected to perform at the same level the following season. However, if their outstanding performance was due, at least in part, to luck, then they are likely to regress towards the mean.

References[edit | edit source]

Regression to the mean Resources
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